JPMorgan revisits Bitcoin forecast after crash

JPMorgan revisits Bitcoin forecast after crash

Mehab Qureshi

Thu, February 5, 2026 at 6:28 PM EST

4 min read

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Just to give you an update before we even get into forecasts or fundamentals, Bitcoin (BTC) is trading around $65,000 right now.

In mid-January, Bitcoin was hovering near $75,000. Since then, it hasn’t fallen off a cliff; it's been slowly, uncomfortably bleeding lower. First $72K. Then $70K. Then $68K. And now, $65K.

That kind of slow crash is often more unsettling than a sudden drop. There’s no single headline to blame, no obvious panic candle, just selling and fading confidence.Earlier, we had FTX, Luna, several reasons to blame. Today is one of the times when there are no real reasons to blame this crash.

And analysts are starting to say the quiet part out loud. Some are warning Bitcoin could slip below $60,000. Others, including a Zacks Investment Research analyst, have floated scenarios where BTC could revisit $40,000 if risk appetite continues to deteriorate.

So yes, crypto markets are under pressure. Sentiment is weak. ETF flows are negative. Even gold and silver, supposed safe havens, have been volatile.

Which is exactly why JPMorgan’s latest call feels so jarring.

Because while Bitcoin is sliding, the largest bank in the U.S. just said BTC could eventually hit $266,000.

JPMorgan turns bullish

In a report published this week, JPMorgan analysts led by managing director Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou said Bitcoin has become more attractive than gold on a volatility-adjusted basis, even amid the current market drawdown.

Specifically, the analysts focused on the bitcoin-to-gold volatility ratio, which has fallen to around 1.5, a record low. That means Bitcoin is no longer more volatile than gold, at least by historical standards.

“The large outperformance of gold vs. bitcoin since last October coupled with the sharp rise in gold volatility has led to bitcoin looking even more attractive compared to gold over the long term,” the analysts wrote.

Using that framework, JPMorgan estimates that Bitcoin’s market capitalization would need to rise enough to imply a price of roughly $266,000 per BTC to match the size of private-sector gold investment, which they peg at around $8 trillion (excluding central bank holdings).

The bank was careful to add context.

That price target is “unrealistic” for this year, the analysts said. But it becomes plausible over the long term, once negative sentiment fades and Bitcoin is again viewed as a credible hedge against extreme economic scenarios.

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Short-term pain is real

Importantly, the bank isn’t blind to what’s happening right now.

JPMorgan noted that crypto markets have come under renewed pressure as technology stocks weakened, risk assets sold off, and investor confidence took another hit following a $29 million hack of Solana-based DeFi platform Step Finance.

Bitcoin’s recent decline has also pushed it below estimated production costs, which JPMorgan pegs at around $87,000. Historically, production cost has acted as a “soft price floor,” but if BTC remains below that level, unprofitable miners could exit the market, dragging costs — and potentially prices — even lower.

Despite that, the analysts pointed out that liquidations have been relatively modest compared to prior crashes. Deleveraging in futures markets has been less severe than the October 2025 wipeout, and institutional selling on CME futures has been contained.

Gold is the key to the entire thesis

The real story here isn’t $266,000. It’s gold.

JPMorgan recently raised its long-term gold outlook to $8,000-$8,500 per ounce, citing structural demand and volatility dynamics.

That’s what’s happening now.

If Bitcoin continues to converge toward gold on a volatility-adjusted basis, JPMorgan argues, its long-term upside becomes mathematically difficult to ignore even if the road there is ugly.

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JPMorgan revisits Bitcoin forecast

January 2024: JPMorgan said Bitcoin’s fair value sat closer to $45,000, warning that post-ETF hype could fade and pressure prices in the near term.
June 2024: Analysts argued Bitcoin was still a “high-beta risk asset,” projecting range-bound trading unless institutional adoption materially accelerated.
November 2024: JPMorgan introduced a gold-comparison framework, suggesting Bitcoin could reach $150,000+ over several years if it captured a share of private gold investment demand.
October 2025: The bank outlined an upside case of $165,000 to $170,000 over 6 to 12 months, driven by improving volatility dynamics versus gold.
Late November 2025: JPMorgan expanded its long-term thesis, floating a $240,000 structural upside if Bitcoin matured as a macro hedge asset.
February 2026: Analysts raised the long-term theoretical target to $266,000, calling it unrealistic in the near term but achievable over time if Bitcoin continues to compete with gold on a volatility-adjusted basis.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Cryptocurrency investments are highly volatile and risky. Always conduct your own research before making any investment decisions.

This story was originally published by TheStreet on Feb 5, 2026, where it first appeared in the MARKETS section. Add TheStreet as a Preferred Source by clicking here.

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