How independent should Israel be of US weapons support as sides dive into MOU?

How independent should Israel be of US weapons support as sides dive into MOU?

YONAH JEREMY BOB

Thu, December 25, 2025 at 9:26 PM UTC

7 min read

An Iron Dome air defense missile and two F-35 fighter jets are seen superimposed over a collage of the US and Israeli flags in this illustrative image. (photo credit: Canva, IDF SPOKESMAN’S UNIT, INGIMAGE, RAFAEL ADVANCED SYSTEMS)

Yahoo is using AI to generate takeaways from this article. This means the info may not always match what's in the article. Reporting mistakes helps us improve the experience.

Generate Key Takeaways

From the start, senior Israeli defense officials told The Jerusalem Post Israel was incapable of producing its own fighter jets, such as the F-35.

The 10-year memorandum of understanding (MOU) between Israel and the US, which grants Jerusalem around $3.8 billion per year in defense aid, expires in 2028.

In the age of “America First,” the Trump administration cutting foreign “aid” across the board, the Biden administration having imposed a partial embargo on weapons to Israel in May 2024, and an increasing number of the Democratic Party’s representatives in Congress voting against military aid to Israel, how much more independent should the Jewish state become from America going forward?

Virtually all pro-Israel persons and think tanks want a new deal to anchor Israeli-American cooperation a decade or more into the future.

But should the new deal merely extend the old one another 10 years, with classic generic updates, while holding onto the same core structure of military aid?

Or should the next deal shift to less aid and more joint partnerships and investments in specific military items and defense technologies?

A Lockheed Martin F-35 fighter jet performs during the International Aerospace Exhibition ILA on the opening day at Schoenefeld Airport in Berlin, Germany June 5, 2024. (credit: AXEL SCHMIDT/REUTERS)

Although that seems a long time away, given that these deals cover programs that do often last a decade, such as Iron Dome, the Arrow, the F-35 fighter jet, and others, usually they are ironed out long before the most recent agreement expires.

In fact, had the Middle East war of 2023-2025 ended earlier, the next MOU might already have been nailed down, or at least the process toward finalizing it would already likely have been at an advanced stage.

All of this means that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s meeting with US President Donald Trump next Monday will have a heavy impact on the negotiations over the new deal.

There are pro-Israel parties in Washington and Jerusalem who are advocating a fundamental shift to less “aid” and more “partnerships.”

Some of this started with a Heritage Foundation report meant to be launched in March, calling to start reducing aid to Israel starting in 2032 and to end it by 2047.

Supporters of a new approach to the Israel-US MOU, though not necessarily the same as the Heritage approach, include former Israeli ambassador to the US Michael Herzog, the Misgav Institute for National Security and Zionist Strategy, likely Israeli Ambassador to the US Yechiel Leiter (who was supposed to attend the Heritage report’s launch until its controversial contents were leaked), and seemingly Netanyahu. They say a switch is necessary both to address changes in the US and in Israel.

On Wednesday, Netanyahu said Israel would spend NIS 350b. over the next decade to make itself more independent in the defense and weapons sectors.

On the one hand, this sounds like a lot of money. On the other hand, split over 10 years, it’s only a fraction of Israel’s annual defense spending, and some of it may include items that are being increased but are not actually entirely new.

In any event, all of the people on this side of the divide say Trump and the Republican Party are now less interested in foreign aid, for Israel or anyone else, and are asking whether a new 10-year handout deal could backfire.

Likewise, after facing pressure from the Biden administration not to invade Rafah in May 2024, and after being penalized by Washington with a partial arms embargo in response to Israel deciding to invade Rafah over Biden’s objections, many Israelis have called for less reliance on America for basic weapons needs.

Already at earlier stages of the war, defense minister Yoav Gallant encouraged Israeli defense industries to produce more ammunition and bombs.

New model of partnerships instead of aid

THE IDEA was that these were basic items Israel should be able to make itself by allocating a larger part of the budget.

From the start, senior Israeli defense officials told The Jerusalem Post Israel was incapable of producing its own fighter jets, such as the F-35.

In fact, decades ago, Israel invested billions in an attempt to do so. Ultimately, it abandoned the idea as not being viable, having lost huge sums of money in the failed effort.

Part of what makes the F-35 viable for the US is that it has sold it to about 10 countries and plans to sell it to more.

Some of the countries it has sold to might not buy such a product from Israel due to criticism or outright hostility.

The flip side, which says that Israel should keep the MOU under the same “aid” principles, or at least only make changes if requested by the US and to try to keep them as limited as possible, also has significant supporters both in Israel and the US.

For example, powerful US Sen.Lindsey Graham has rejected the new model of partnerships instead of aid.

“Some in Israel, I think including Prime Minister Netanyahu, think these days that Israel should downgrade the next MOU when it comes to the dependence on the US,” he told the Post. “Big mistake… The day it is seen in Washington that you really don’t need us is a big mistake… The people you’re trying to please will never be pleased.”

“There’s an element of antisemitism, anti-Israel in America, and it’s growing,” Graham said. “From my point of view, the biggest mistake we could make is to let these loud voices subdue the relationship. It is now time for the relationship to grow… If you think now is the time to weaken the relationship with Washington, you do so at your own peril.”

Likewise, certain former Israeli National Security Council and defense officials have told the Post it would be a mistake to switch from aid to partnership at this stage.

They say small aspects of partnership could be added to the MOU and some additional obligations to spend even more of the aid funds on US defense products, but keeping a certain amount of aid is key in rooting the relationship in an American “obligation” and “commitment” to Israel, including common values, and not merely a transactional partnership for as long as possible.

Even these officials acknowledge that at some later date, the US-Israel relationship might shift. But they discourage preempting that process in a futile effort to get on the good side of those Americans who are already turning away from Israel.

Instead, they encourage Jerusalem to strengthen the arms of both the Republican and Democratic parties that have naturally supported Israel until now.

The other big twist in all of this is the idea of a 20-year deal versus past 10-year deals.

This strategy seems to be based on the idea that 10 years from now, it may be politically impossible to justify a new deal. Therefore, a 20-year deal should be struck to make it harder for whoever is in power in Washington down the road to withdraw financial support for Israel.

Some experts in US-Israel relations have said a written MOU helps strengthen the mutual obligations between the sides, but the most critical move Israel must undertake is a true bipartisan strategy for rebuilding and reinforcing support for Israel.

This may involve making certain policy choices that Israelis have mixed feelings about, but losing broader American support may eventually kill financial support for Israel whether there is a 10-year or 20-year deal, and whether it is framed in terms of aid or partnership.

Amichai Stein contributed to this report.

About Our Ads

Source